A distinguished British political commentator Norman Angell wrote in his ”The Great Illusion” that European states had become so interdependent and so much part of the international trade and commerce that no one would be fool enough as a leader in Europe to start a new war.
He wrote this in 1910 (!), four years before World War I.
”Angell tremendously underestimated the irrationalities and social processes that lead to devastating outcomes, even when they make no sense.”
That is what Jeffrey Sachs, one of the most famous economist in the world, wrote about Angell’s thinking – in 2005. (J. D. Sachs, The End of Poverty. How We Can Make It Happen in Our Lifetime.)